Each month, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts out an analysis of the previous month’s weather after the final tally. The most recent update covers an odd October for the US, where the month included some terrifying wildfire conditions in California. This latest analysis also provides the long-range outlook for the winter months.
October provides another good reminder to Americans that their country is not the entire planet. Courtesy of the jet stream doing its thing, the western US experienced notably cool temperatures for much of the month. A dozen states had Octobers that ranked somewhere around the 8th coldest on record. Despite warmer temperatures along the East Coast, it was ranked as the 21st coldest for the nation.
Looking globally, however, the western US was an outlier. Overall, it was the 2nd warmest October on record, behind only 2015. And with most of 2019 behind us, the final number for the year is crystallizing. NOAA puts the odds of 2019 being among the five warmest years on record at more than 99.9%. (So they’re saying there’s a chance.) More specifically, there’s now about an 85% probability of coming in second behind 2016—exactly the prediction we shared in early February.